Trends of major crops productivity to climate variability in Lay Gayint Woreda, Northwest Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is expected to have serious economic, social and environmental impacts in Africa in general and sub-Saharan Africa in particular. Ethiopia is largely an agrarian country with agriculture continuing to be the largest sector in its economy. The country is highly vulnerable to inter-annual climate variation, often cited as one of the important factors in explaining various socioeconomic problems such as food insecurity and household vulnerability to poverty. Climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. It influences crop production and productivity to a greater extent in countries like Ethiopia where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. A comparison of yield in a good rainfallyear (1996) with that of a drought year (2001/2002) indicate that the national average yields drop by 40-50% during drought years.. Therefore, The main objectives of this study is to analyze the effect of climate variability on of major crops (Cereals, pulses and oilseeds) productivity trend in Lay Gayint Woreda, Northwest Ethiopia. The study used secondary data on all the variables. The yield data for three major crops: Cereals, pulses and oilseeds wereobtained from South Gondar Agricultural Offices from 1998-2016 whereas climatic data (temperature and rainfall time series) from 1998 –2017 was collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Services. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the climatic elements and the selected crop yields indicated that the increasing amount of maximum temperature leads to declining the yields of these particular crops and correlation between rainfalls against these particular crops are weak. The multiple linear regression analysis of crops produced in the study area with rainfall and temperature elements of climate explains 14.8 %, 57%, 7.6%, 27.7%, 9.8%, 50.6%, 29% and 53.6 % of the variation of the for teff, wheat, barley, beans, pea, lentils, oilniger and linseed yield respectively can be as a result of the impact of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature. It is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for household level food security. This study recommends that efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management approach for adapting to the ongoing climate change. Key words: Climate variability, Crop productivity trend,Correlation and regression analyses