Abstract:
Abstract
Climate change is expected to have serious economic, social and environmental impacts in
Africa in general and sub-Saharan Africa in particular. Ethiopia is largely an agrarian country with
agriculture continuing to be the largest sector in its economy. The country is highly vulnerable to
inter-annual climate variation, often cited as one of the important factors in explaining various socioeconomic
problems such as food insecurity and household vulnerability to poverty. Climate change
like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. It influences crop
production and productivity to a greater extent in countries like Ethiopia where agriculture depends
largely on natural circumstances. A comparison of yield in a good rainfallyear (1996) with that of a
drought year (2001/2002) indicate that the national average yields drop by 40-50% during drought
years.. Therefore, The main objectives of this study is to analyze the effect of climate variability on of
major crops (Cereals, pulses and oilseeds) productivity trend in Lay Gayint Woreda, Northwest
Ethiopia. The study used secondary data on all the variables. The yield data for three major crops:
Cereals, pulses and oilseeds wereobtained from South Gondar Agricultural Offices from 1998-2016
whereas climatic data (temperature and rainfall time series) from 1998 –2017 was collected from the
Ethiopian Meteorological Services. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the climatic elements
and the selected crop yields indicated that the increasing amount of maximum temperature leads to
declining the yields of these particular crops and correlation between rainfalls against these
particular crops are weak. The multiple linear regression analysis of crops produced in the study area
with rainfall and temperature elements of climate explains 14.8 %, 57%, 7.6%, 27.7%, 9.8%, 50.6%,
29% and 53.6 % of the variation of the for teff, wheat, barley, beans, pea, lentils, oilniger and linseed
yield respectively can be as a result of the impact of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature. It
is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area
and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for
household level food security. This study recommends that efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate
change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management
approach for adapting to the ongoing climate change.
Key words: Climate variability, Crop productivity trend,Correlation and regression analyses
