Spatial and temporal distribution of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Amhara region of Ethiopia in the period 1999 to 2016

Abstract

Background: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an economically important trans-boundary viral disease of clovenhoofed animals. It is caused by FMD virus, which belongs to the genus Aphthovirus and family Picornaviridae. FMD is a well-established endemic disease in Ethiopia since it was first detected in 1957. This retrospective study was carried out to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Amhara region of Ethiopia using 18 years (January 1999–December 2016) reported outbreak data. Results: A total of 636 FMD outbreaks were reported in Amhara region of Ethiopia between 1999 and 2016 with an average and median of 35 and 13 outbreaks per year respectively. In this period, FMD was reported at least once in 58.5% of the districts (n = 79) and in all administrative zones of the region (n = 10). The average district level incidence of FMD outbreaks was 4.68 per 18 years (0.26 per district year). It recurs in a district as epidemic, on average in 5.86 years period. The incidence differed between administrative zones, being the lowest in East Gojjam and highest in North Shewa. The occurrence of FMD outbreaks was found to be seasonal with peak outbreaks in March and a low in August. The long-term trend of FMD outbreaks indicates a slight, but statistically significant (p < 0.001) decrease over the study period. Conclusion: FMD occurred in all zones of the region and showed statistically significant decrease in the long-term trend. Numbers of outbreaks were relatively higher during dry season. The spatial and temporal distribution identified in this study should be considered in controlling the disease. As unregulated and frequent animal movements are the likely causes of high outbreak occurrence during the dry season, animal movement regulations should be considered for the long-term control of FMD.