Abstract:
Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change-induced hazards due to the fact that it affects the two most important direct agricultural production inputs, such as precipitation
and temperature. Therefore, this study analyzed the susceptibility of agriculture to climate change in three purposively selected
agro-ecological area of Northwest Ethiopia. The quantitative climate data were obtained from Global Weather Data for Soil and
Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) from 1979 to 2010 while data
on crop production and perception of households towards crop
yield trend were collected using structured questionnaire complemented with informants’ interview and field observation. Analytical techniques such as simple regressions (SR), standardized
precipitation index (SPI), one-way-analysis of variance (ANOVA),
crop diversification index (CDI) and index of trend of yield (ITY)
supported with descriptive statistics were used to analyze the
data. The meteorology data reveal that climate is characterized
by increasing annual temperature trend, greater inter-seasonal
variation of rainfall, and alteration of wet and dry years in a periodic pattern over the past 32 years (1979 – 2010). Rainfall also
showed decreasing tendency at a statistically non-significant
trend. Huge unproductive land was reported in the fragile lowland (41 %) distantly followed by Dabat (21.32 %). These ecological contexts have worsened the susceptibility of agriculture
to climate change-induced risks. The trend of crop yield stability
index was found to be high in the fragile lowland against the official statistics. In fact, places located nearer to the sources of climatic risks continue to suffer from pervasive
poverty. In conclusion, ecologically designed
agricultural systems that can provide a buffer
against extreme events need to be the primary
concerns of the regional government to
minimize climate change-induced risks thereby
increasing resiliency of rural households. Local
leaders should enforce green laws through
integrated land management practices that
enable to regulate the local climate;
sequestrating carbon dioxide and reducing
climatic risks (drought and flood). In this
regard, research should be done to find heattolerant seeds and to resolve the contradictory
reports of official yield statistics and rural
households’ observations on crop yield trend.
