Abstract:
and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency
of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units
across sub-Saharan Africa.
Methods In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence
data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and
mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate
HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data
on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified
the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate
HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.
